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The relationship between genotype and phenotype remains an outstanding question for organism-level traits because these traits are generallycomplex. The challenge arises from complex traits being determined by a combination of multiple genes (or loci), which leads to an explosion of possible genotype–phenotype mappings. The primary techniques to resolve these mappings are genome/transcriptome-wide association studies, which are limited by their lack of causal inference and statistical power. Here, we develop an approach that combines transcriptional data endowed with causal information and a generative machine learning model designed to strengthen statistical power. Our implementation of the approach—dubbed transcriptome-wide conditional variational autoencoder (TWAVE)—includes a variational autoencoder trained on human transcriptional data, which is incorporated into an optimization framework. Given a trait phenotype, TWAVE generates expression profiles, which we dimensionally reduce by identifying independently varying generalized pathways (eigengenes). We then conduct constrained optimization to find causal gene sets that are the gene perturbations whose measured transcriptomic responses best explain trait phenotype differences. By considering several complex traits, we show that the approach identifies causal genes that cannot be detected by the primary existing techniques. Moreover, the approach identifies complex diseases caused by distinct sets of genes, meaning that the disease is polygenicandexhibits distinct subtypes driven by different genotype–phenotype mappings. We suggest that the approach will enable the design of tailored experiments to identify multigenic targets to address complex diseases. 

Irreversibility, in which a transient perturbation leaves a system in a new state, is an emergent property in systems of interacting entities. This property has well-established implications in statistical physics but remains underexplored in biological networks, especially for bacteria and other prokaryotes whose regulation of gene expression occurs predominantly at the transcriptional level. Focusing on the reconstructed regulatory network ofEscherichia coli, we examine network responses to transient single-gene perturbations. We predict irreversibility in numerous cases and find that the incidence of irreversibility increases with the proximity of the perturbed gene to positive circuits in the network. Comparison with experimental data suggests a connection between the predicted irreversibility to transient perturbations and the evolutionary response to permanent perturbations. 

Recent developments in synthetic biology, next-generation sequencing, and machine learning provide an unprecedented opportunity to rationally design new disease treatments based on measured responses to gene perturbations and drugs to reprogram cells. The main challenges to seizing this opportunity are the incomplete knowledge of the cellular network and the combinatorial explosion of possible interventions, both of which are insurmountable by experiments. To address these challenges, we develop a transfer learning approach to control cell behavior that is pre-trained on transcriptomic data associated with human cell fates, thereby generating a model of the network dynamics that can be transferred to specific reprogramming goals. The approach combines transcriptional responses to gene perturbations to minimize the difference between a given pair of initial and target transcriptional states. We demonstrate our approach’s versatility by applying it to a microarray dataset comprising >9,000 microarrays across 54 cell types and 227 unique perturbations, and an RNASeq dataset consisting of >10,000 sequencing runs across 36 cell types and 138 perturbations. Our approach reproduces known reprogramming protocols with an AUROC of 0.91 while innovating over existing methods by pre-training an adaptable model that can be tailored to specific reprogramming transitions. We show that the number of gene perturbations required to steer from one fate to another increases with decreasing developmental relatedness and that fewer genes are needed to progress along developmental paths than to regress. These findings establish a proof-of-concept for our approach to computationally design control strategies and provide insights into how gene regulatory networks govern phenotype.